I’m a big fan of Rogers’ innovation theory, especially how the adoption curve shows how change spreads through society. So I was excited to discover Jan Willem Bolderdijk, a Dutch professor researching how psychological barriers and social factors impact the adoption of change. His focus on the role of morality and social interactions offers crucial insights for trend forecasters.
Let’s explore how new attitudes and behaviors become ‘normal’.
THE research
Best to let the man himself explain his research topic in 1 minute 😎:
Jan Willem has a phd in Social Psychology, my favourite subject during my studies! (Back then, I had to read The Social Animal by Elliot Aronson, which is actually the only study book I kept and re-read after my studies.)
He’s currently a professor of Sustainability & Marketing at the University of Amsterdam (UvA) where he focuses specifically on sustainable behaviour and conscious consumer choices.
The main question he tries to answer is:
Why don’t green intentions always translate directly into green consumer behaviour and green choices?
Although this specific research group focuses on sustainability, I feel the results can also be very insightful for other types of topics as well.
FRAMEWORK
The research group of Jan Willem Bolderdijk adds to the Rogers theory by investigating the role of morality and how it can accelerate social tipping points. It sheds light on how to close the gap between early adopters and the mainstream.
I focus mainly on the insights from this article. Some definitions before jumping into the research insights:
- Social tipping points: small changes which produce a fundamental transformation in a social system.
- Moralization: behavior shifting from a personal preference to being viewed as a socially (in)appropriate thing to do. Such as wearing a seat belt in a car or not smoking in public spaces.
- Moral innovators: a minority group who chooses to deviate from social conventions and adopt new behaviors for moral reasons. Also known as ‘Moral Rebels’.
MORE ON MORALITY
So, something is moralized when it shifts from a personal value to a cultural or social value. This also makes the adoption of moralized behavior seem more sensitive than adopting less moralized behavior, due to the risk of backlash from others.
This is also observable with trends, where more moral driven movements such as ‘gender bending’ or ‘deep inclusivity’ get strong resistance from the mainstream. Whereas more functional focused trends such as ‘frictionless living’ or ‘hybrid reality’ feel less threatening to non-adopters.
Although moralization may initially generate social friction that delays tipping points, it can accelerate change at later stages by increasing social pressure on laggards.
Let’s take a look at how this works from a social systems perspective. 👇
SOCIAL DYNAMICS AT PLAY
When we investigate trends, we take the long view and try to understand how individual or groups of frontrunners are influencing other people in society. The research on morals and social change shows that:
- at first it often seems that something new is polarizing and dividing the frontrunners and the rejectors, but…
- social friction also means interactions are happening between these groups. On the longer-term these interactions may lead to persuasion, and even become a facilitator of wider social change. As the visual below shows:
Source: Accelerating social tipping points in sustainable behaviors: Insights from a dynamic model of moralized social change. (2024)
Change does not happen overnight and especially with more risky innovations people need to be exposed to it multiple times before they will consider changing their behaviour. This is know as Complex Contagion.
MODEL OF MORALIZED CHANGE
The research study proposes a five-phased model of Moralized Social Change for understanding the dynamics of sustainable behavior change at a societal level, with a particular focus on the role of moralization and moral innovators in these processes.
The five key phases are:
- moral recognition
- moral amplification
- approaching tipping points
- institutionalization
- norm abandonment
These phases follow the adoption theory of Rogers but add other theories on network dynamics into the mix. As seen in the visual below.
Source: Accelerating social tipping points in sustainable behaviors: Insights from a dynamic model of moralized social change. (2024)
I’ll summarize the five phases for you:
1. Moral recognition
Moral rebels deviate from the norm as the first ones and will encounter social rejection and ridicule. They look for likeminded people to exchange knowledge and experience, keeping each other motivated and to take collective action.
Although it seems the majority is rejecting the new behavior, some people silently will start reflecting on their own attitudes. The seed is planted…
For example: vegans may appear to be widely socially rejected or ignored by non-vegans, but by providing a consistent moral message during social interactions, they may still be indirectly having an influence on other people’s attitudes about meat consumption, which may lead these people to later change their behavior.
2. Moral amplification
In this phase the new moral behaviour is more often seen and more people start to understand and appreciate why the moral innovators choose to deviate. At this point moral rebels can become a source of moral threat, because their deviance implies that others’ behaviors are morally problematic. You get heated discussions and social debates in this phase.
This leads to pluralistic ignorance at the group level, in which the majority privately rejects a social norm supporting an unsustainable behavior, but they still engage in the unsustainable behavior because they incorrectly believe they are in the minority. Attitudes are already shifting, but the related behavior is lagging behind.
For example: many people may be considering reducing their meat consumption, but feel reluctant to change because they mistakenly believe others do not share their views. However, the presence of widespread shared attitudes creates the potential for rapid social change to occur.
3. Approaching tipping points
More people start to view the novel behavior as virtuous. Therefore, the social costs associated with adopting the behavior are decreasing. People can start to publicly declare their opinion and encourage other people to voice their opinions. The innovators are less ridiculed and not seen as a threat but as inspirators.
This creates a tipping point, which is a self-perpetuating feedback loop, in which more and more people adopt a novel sustainable behavior, which in turn motivates more and more people to imitate their example. Often, there is not just one isolated tipping point but rather separate “pockets” or “bubbles” of change in which people start to experiment with (or resist) new ideas, which then spreads to other pockets.
For example: Changes in the material environment play a role here as well; the availability of plant-based food products increase to meet consumer demand to a point where it has significantly impacted existing infrastructures and economies of scale, making adopting a plant-based diet more accessible to the masses.
4. Institutionalisation
In this phase the late majority will also start to consider change, not only for moral reasons, but also because institutional changes have made the novel sustainable behavior more common, attractive, and affordable, and the unsustainable behaviors more expensive, unattractive, and uncommon.
The shift in behaviors may now become institutionalized in policy, infrastructure, and production systems because policymakers and other professionals now perceive there to be a public mandate for change.
For example: once policy makers sense that there is sufficient public support, they may start taxing existing animal-based foods, subsidizing plant-based foods, adding climate warning labels to animal-based foods, or banning advertisements for meat in public spaces.
In this phase, however, if the societal moralization associated with the behaviors is not maintained, there is a possibility that adopters will backslide to the unsustainable behavior due to conformity pressures. With changes to laws and infrastructures, there is also the potential that counter-movements will arise that aim to resist social change.
5. Norm abandonment
One longer-term consequence of institutionalization is that the novel sustainable behavior may become “unmoralized.” This means the new behaviour is now just “common sense” or “what everyone does”.
Once the novel sustainable behavior has become the new dominant paradigm, it becomes easier to openly condemn the unsustainable behavior, because this will now be widely viewed as an immoral, undesirable minority practice. In other words, the “social incentives have reversed.”
For example: if the infrastructural changes now set the plant-based diets as the default, eating plant-based is no longer be seen as a praiseworthy, active choice. It has become the norm.
HOW TO ACCELERATE TIPPING POINTS?
What can organisations, policy makers and other professionals learn from this model of moralized change?
- Don’t let friction fool you!
This study shows that social friction can be temporary and may even be needed to get a novel moral behavior to a tipping point. It might be a good thing that people react intensely to something new, it means they care about the issue. If they would just ignore it, you would have a harder time reaching a critical mass.
- Support the moral rebels
Especially in the early stages of social change help moral innovators to maintain their deviance in the face of social pressure. Facilitate their movement in ways that are feasible and fitting for your organisation. Help them to share their opinions publicly. For example, advocates could form community groups and online social networks.
- Lead by example
Organisations and professionals can set an example of how to perform the novel sustainable behavior, rather than simply providing more information about the reasons to change. Seeing is believing!
- From reactive to proactive
The actions of policymakers and other professionals typically follow tipping points. But if these system changes were introduced earlier, they could potentially speed up tipping points. Don’t just wait and see when you can have a key role in accelerating widescale social change.
Sources:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jan-willem-bolderdijk-b577434/?originalSubdomain=nl
https://studiegids.uva.nl/xmlpages/page/2022-2023/zoek-vak/vak/103187
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